Assessment of the relations between crop yield variability and the onset and intensity of the West African Monsoon

Timely information on the onset of rain is essential for effectively adapting to climate variability and increasing resilience rain-fed systems. However, defining optimal sowing dates based has been challenging. We compared analyzed West African Monsoon according Raman's, modified Sivakumar's, Yamada's, Liebmann's definitions using station data from 13 locations in Senegal 1981 2020. Subsequently, we systematically effect differently estimated monsoon onsets(WAM-OS) maize development. To this end, applied set generated WAM-OS as simulations growth yields, applying Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM) at representing different agroclimatic regions across Senegal. examined impact under variable conditions soil organic carbon(SOC) plant available water capacity(PAWC). Our analysis showed statistically significant differences between dates, rainfall characteristics computed these, yields simulated definitions. found were most suitable both hydrological agronomic applications since they characterized by lowest probabilities prolonged dry spells after onset, highest amount mid-season, other results highlight importance their accurate prediction improving crop productivity study area. also SOC PAWC important factors that improved yields. recommend access services help smallholder farmers get timely helps them decisions encourage interventions improve level, pore volume retain more properties directly(e.g., tillage) indirectly(suited cropping systems) contribute enhancing productivity.